Key Events Today:

10/05 08:00 UTC: EUR – S&P Global Composite PMI.

10/05 14:00 UTC: USD – ISM Services PMI.

The Euro enters the new session with a noticeably weaker baseline position. The fiscal situation in France and the risk of political deadlock continue to weigh on confidence in eurozone assets, while today’s final PMI data will merely refine growth rate estimates. Following a prolonged decline, part of the negative background is already priced in, so further downside requires fresh pressure to be maintained.

From the US perspective, the picture remains mixed. A soft September employment report significantly reduced the probability of another Fed rate hike in October; however, elevated Treasury yields and Dollar demand amid debt market tensions continue to support the US currency. For EUR/USD, this leaves the advantage with the Dollar, although its upside momentum has become less one-sided.

A substantial portion of the daily decline has already materialized, so the remaining potential is evaluated with caution. A reversal factor would be a further drop in US yields or significantly stronger eurozone data. In the absence of these, French political risks and the Dollar’s relative advantage keep the priority on a downward move in EUR/USD.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1180, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1095.