Key events today:

26.09 12:30 UTC: USD – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index.

The dollar is strengthening against the yen amid stronger US macroeconomic data and rising Treasury yields. The market is lowering expectations of a rapid and deep Fed rate cut, which directly supports the dollar. The recovery of the dollar index to recent highs and resilient US economic data widen the yield differential in favor of the US — a key fundamental driver of USDJPY growth.

In Japan, inflation in the capital region remains above the target level, but the Bank of Japan’s tightening trajectory is still gradual. Yields on Japanese government bonds are rising moderately and do not yet offset the advantage of US bonds. This supports capital outflows into dollar assets and weakens the yen, especially given the stable demand from global investors for the dollar in a context of geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

The market also factors in the risk of verbal intervention from Japanese authorities as round levels approach, but for now fundamental factors — US yields, resilient consumer spending, and Fed rate expectations — outweigh. With neutral or strong US releases, the probability of retesting recent USDJPY highs remains elevated.

Recommendations: BUY 149.75, SL 149.60, TP 150.60.