No major events are expected today.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1620 on Monday, but demand for the dollar remains strong as market participants price in a longer period of high interest rates in the United States following a series of resilient macroeconomic indicators. Several major banks have shifted expectations for the first rate cut closer to the second half of 2026, supporting inflows into dollar-denominated assets and interest in U.S. placements.

On the European side, the picture is less convincing. Inflation in the euro area is slowing, and the ECB continues to stress its data-dependent approach, while growth remains uneven. High borrowing costs are weighing on investment, and external trade is sensitive to global conditions and export competition, limiting the euro’s upside potential.

The focus is shifting to new signals from the U.S. on inflation, consumer demand, and the labor market. Data confirming persistent price pressures would reinforce expectations of tight financial conditions and support the dollar. Political noise around central bank independence may add short-term volatility, but the fundamental balance still favors further downside in the pair.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1615, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1525