Important events today:

01.07 12:15 UTC: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

01.07 13:00 UTC: USD – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks.

01.07 13:00 UTC: GBP – Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks.

01.07 14:00 UTC: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The Pound enters July after revisions to British economic data, which do not eliminate questions regarding the resilience of domestic demand. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 0.6%, but household disposable income contracted, and April figures indicate a weaker momentum at the start of the second quarter. This limits the economy’s ability to withstand high interest rates for long.

The Bank of England maintained its rate at 3.75% in June, but cooler inflation and lower public expectations for price growth reduce the need for rapid policy tightening. At the same time, government changes maintain uncertainty surrounding fiscal decisions. The market will evaluate whether the new administration manages to combine stimulus plans with maintaining confidence in public finances.

The external environment remains unfavorable for GBPUSD: rising US yields and strengthening expectations regarding the Fed rate increase the dollar’s attractiveness. Support for the Pound could come from signs of recovering spending and price pressures in the services sector, but fresh data does not yet provide such confidence. Therefore, the baseline scenario assumes the dollar’s advantage and allows for a decline in the pair if the current news background persists.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3160.