Important Events Today:

15.04 18:00 UTC: GBP – Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech.

The Pound is holding near 1.3570, reflecting dollar fluctuations and news from the Middle East. Expectations of negotiations and potential de-escalation are reducing demand for safe-haven assets, but any deterioration in the situation quickly brings nervousness back to the market. Oil and gas prices remain an additional channel of influence, as they are crucial for the British economy.

Domestically, attention is shifting toward the Bank of England’s rhetoric and decisions. The market is increasingly discussing how rising energy costs could keep inflation above the target longer than expected, though the regulator must also consider cooling business activity. Against this backdrop, any divergence between market expectations and BoE signals increases the pair’s volatility.

From the outside, pressure on the Pound is created by worsening global forecasts and the risk of weaker growth in Europe. The IMF is already revising estimates, pointing to the consequences of the energy shock, which makes GBP/USD dynamics dependent on the combination of “energy” news and US price data. If the Fed maintains its focus on high rates, the potential for a stronger dollar could return the pair to lower levels. The main risk is a sharp drop in oil prices and an improvement in risk appetite.

Recommendations: SELL 1.3575, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3475.