No significant events are expected today.

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1550–1.1560 at the start of the week amid stabilization of the US dollar. The market is reacting to weak household sentiment data in the US and signs of a possible resolution to the prolonged government shutdown. Against this backdrop, the short-term impulse in favor of the dollar remains, limiting the upside potential for the euro this week.

The fundamental picture in the US is mixed: weakening leading indicators and fiscal uncertainty are weighing on risk appetite, but monetary policy expectations remain the key driver. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is fluctuating, while Treasury yields remain relatively elevated, supporting the dollar against the euro.

From the Eurozone side, there are no new surprises from the ECB: the regulator signals a pause after the previous easing cycle, while consumer demand and industrial data remain uneven. Late last week the euro strengthened on weak US employment data, but today the dollar is regaining momentum. Overall, the balance of factors currently favors a tactical downside move in EUR/USD.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1555, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1505