No major economic events are expected today.

The European Central Bank remains committed to containing inflation. The minutes published on October 8 confirmed the unanimous September rate hike, though they did not set a mandatory path for further tightening. For the Euro, this provides continued rate support, even as high borrowing costs and fiscal challenges in individual member states limit the attractiveness of European assets.

At the start of the week, falling oil prices following reports of an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine weaken one of the catalysts for further Fed rate hikes. Ahead of upcoming US inflation data, the market largely expects a pause in October. This creates an opportunity for moderate Euro strengthening, provided demand for the Dollar receives no new impetus.

France’s sovereign debt risks persist, meaning a sustained recovery in the European backdrop is not yet confirmed. A rebound in energy prices or an escalation in the Middle East conflict could quickly restore the Dollar’s advantage. However, within the horizon of today’s trading session, easing oil price pressure allows for a limited upside in EUR/USD while expectations for a Fed pause remain intact.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1210, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1265.