Important events today:

30.10 06:30 UTC: JPY Bank of Japan Press Conference

The Bank of Japan held its interest rate steady at 1.25% today while raising its inflation forecast and reaffirming its readiness to continue tightening policy. For the Yen, this posture is key: the expected pause does not signal an abandonment of future rate hikes. The press conference by the head of the central bank will serve as a test of how convincingly he confirms this forward trajectory.

The grounds for maintaining a strict policy remain intact: October Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food came in at 2.6% year-over-year, well above the central bank’s target. Although the figure slowed slightly from September and does not guarantee an immediate rate hike, persistent price pressure supports expectations of a further narrowing in the rate differential between Japan and the US.

Declining US bond yields reinforce this narrative, diminishing the Dollar’s interest rate advantage against the Yen. While the yield gap still favors the US and dovish comments from the Bank of Japan could trigger a pullback, intervention risks are not the primary driver here. As long as current yield trends and central bank signals persist, the baseline scenario for USD/JPY favors further downside.

Recommendations: SELL 157.40, SL 157.80, TP 156.60.