Key events today:

12.09 14:00 UTC: USD – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The pair is trading around 147–148, but fundamental factors tilt the balance of risks in favor of yen strengthening. Expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut weaken dollar support through the yield channel. Additionally, the US and Japan confirmed their commitment to “market-determined” exchange rates and the inadmissibility of “excessive volatility,” which de facto leaves Tokyo room for action during sharp moves and limits USD buyers’ enthusiasm on rallies.

Domestically, Japan shows stronger signals of inflation persistence: accelerating wholesale prices and spreading wage growth increase the likelihood of cautious Bank of Japan tightening by year-end. At the same time, BoJ is expected to remain on hold for now, leaving the market with a “hawkish” optional tail. Against this backdrop, the short-term bias is for a gradual USDJPY decline.

Base scenario for today: selling from rounded levels with clear risks — SELL 147.50, SL 148.10 (above potential “spike” zone on news), TP 146.50 — under continued dovish Fed expectations and signals of Japanese authorities’ readiness to smooth excessive moves.

Recommendations: SELL 147.50, SL 148.10, TP 146.50.