Important events today:

03.04 12:30 UTC: USD – Nonfarm Payrolls Change.

03.04 12:30 UTC: GBP – USD – Unemployment Rate.

USD/JPY trades near 159.60 and remains at the upper boundary of recent fluctuations, but further upside potential appears limited. Approaching the round level increases Japanese authorities’ attention to the dynamics and raises the risk of statements aimed at cooling the market, while expensive oil adds pressure to the import-dependent economy.

The dollar is supported by safe-haven demand amid the Iran conflict and expectations that US rates will remain high longer. At the same time, arguments for yen strengthening are rising: imported inflation from energy increases the likelihood of Bank of Japan policy tightening, and sharp currency moves may be seen as speculative by authorities.

Today’s US labor market data could be a turning point: weak statistics will reduce pressure on yields and lower the dollar’s appeal. Given the proximity to levels that traditionally trigger a reaction from Japanese officials, a correction of the pair downwards in the near term seems reasonable.

Recommendations: SELL 159.60, SL 159.80, TP 158.40