No major events are expected today.

On Monday, the pair is holding near 1.1760 following a modest recovery over the past week. Support for the US Dollar returned due to a new wave of tension surrounding Iran: the market is once again pricing in increased demand for safe-haven assets, and a spike in oil prices is fueling inflation concerns, sustaining interest in the American currency. Against this backdrop, the Euro is losing part of its recent advantage and looks more vulnerable against the Dollar at the start of the new week.

For the single currency, the European Central Bank’s stance remains an additional limiting factor. Christine Lagarde stated that the military conflict in the Middle East could simultaneously weaken Eurozone economic growth and push inflation above previous estimates. Meanwhile, the regulator is reluctant to act hastily: the rate was maintained at 2%, and the market is still inclined to view the April decision as a pause until more convincing data emerges.

In this environment, the Euro finds itself squeezed between two unfavorable factors: expensive energy heightens inflationary risks for the Eurozone, but the ECB has yet to signal an immediate policy tightening. Simultaneously, the Dollar benefits from rising caution and higher oil prices. As long as the geopolitical premium remains and the European regulator maintains a wait-and-see approach, a downward scenario for EUR/USD looks more fundamentally justified.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1755, SL 1.1785, TP 1.1665.