No significant events are expected today.

The recovery of the pair is driven by the weakening of the US dollar (USD) following Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data.

The US PCE inflation report met expectations: the monthly core PCE remained at 0.3%. The core PCE slightly increased to 0.3% from December’s 0.2%, while the annual core PCE came in at 2.6%, slightly exceeding forecasts but unchanged from December. The core PCE declined to 2.6% compared to the revised 2.9% in December.

Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions between the US and China could support safe-haven flows into the US dollar, potentially limiting EUR/USD growth. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting Tuesday, adding to the initial 10% tariffs imposed last month. On Thursday, Trump also stated on Truth Social that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods will take effect on March 4.

The euro (EUR) is strengthening against its peers following Friday’s stronger-than-expected Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from Germany for February. Investors are now awaiting the Eurozone HICP inflation data, which will be released later today.

Recommendation: BUY 1.0430, SL 1.0380, TP 1.0510.