No significant events are expected today.

The euro remains under pressure: on Monday, the rate fell to 1.1675 after the European Commission announced an extension of the moratorium on retaliatory US tariffs until August 1. The unresolved trade conflict increases uncertainty for European exporters and makes the dollar a safe haven for investors seeking to minimize risk.

Additional support for the dollar comes from rising real yields: the 10-year UST yield remains above 4.40%, reinforcing a positive spread over German bonds. As a result, futures pricing for a Fed rate cut in September have narrowed to 25 bps, and the market is increasingly factoring in a single easing by year-end.

For the euro, the picture is further complicated by weak data: German industrial production rose only 0.2% m/m in May, while the ZEW economic sentiment index for July slipped into negative territory. Since the ECB already cut rates in June and expects further inflation slowdown, capital inflows to Europe remain limited.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1675, SL 1.1705, TP 1.1620.