No major events are expected today.

The pair is trading near 1.1730 after recovering from morning losses, but the fundamental background for the Euro remains vulnerable. The Dollar is receiving support from uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations: the risk of a new spike in tensions near the Strait of Hormuz maintains demand for safe-haven assets. For the Eurozone, the situation is particularly sensitive due to its dependence on imported energy: high oil prices increase business costs and dampen growth expectations.

Additional pressure on the Euro is created by investor caution ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions later this week. The Fed is expected to keep the rate unchanged and assess the impact of the energy shock on inflation. The ECB is also forced to consider the risk of weaker business activity in the region. German consumer confidence data may further fuel doubts about the resilience of the Eurozone economy.

No strong Dollar rally is observed yet, as the market allows for the possibility of resumed negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. However, the balance of factors today is shifted in favor of selling EUR/USD. The energy risk hits Europe harder, while the Dollar maintains an advantage due to its safe-haven status and the Fed’s cautious stance regarding future rate cuts.

Recommendations: SELL 1.1730, SL 1.1760, TP 1.1640.