No major events expected today.

The EUR/USD pair retreats from the gains of the previous session, trading near 1.1240 during the Asian session on Monday. The euro (EUR) is under pressure after European Central Bank (ECB) official Olli Rehn stated last week that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, provided that upcoming forecasts confirm the continuation of disinflation and economic slowdown.

Despite this, EUR/USD has found some support amid optimism surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China held in Geneva. Both sides reported “substantial progress” after two days of negotiations aimed at easing the ongoing trade dispute. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called the talks “an important first step” in stabilizing bilateral relations, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this view, noting significant progress.

Markets now await Washington’s response to the countermeasures proposed by the European Commission against U.S. tariffs. On Thursday, the Commission launched public consultations outlining potential tariffs on U.S. imports worth up to €95 billion in the event of failed negotiations.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic prospects remain uncertain. Federal Reserve officials highlight the risk of stagflation, and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr warns that rising tariffs could disrupt supply chains, leading to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment. Investors remain cautious, as further escalation of trade tensions could pose serious risks to the U.S. economy.

Recommendations: BUY 1.1230, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1300.